ANTE-POST PREVIEW………….

The William Hill Ayr Gold Cup is a hard enough race to assess on the day let alone a fortnight beforehand. However, what we can say based on the past few runnings is that a horse will have to be rated 90 plus merely to get into the race.

That is highly likely to rule out several of the ante-post market leaders including Harry Patch (rated 87) the current favourite who may need to pick up a penalty to avoid demotion into the Silver Cup where he would have to carry a welter weight.

Of those horses that played a leading role in the race last year arguably the most unlucky was Redford (second home on the stands’ side).

He has since moved from Michael Bell to Dandy Nicholls and his handicap mark has slipped from 102 to 97 and has also been campaigned over further with his latest third at Chester a relative return to form. 

That run in the Ayr Gold Cup last year was a joint best performance of his career and granted a good draw and some give in the ground there is no reason why the five-year-old can’t improve on that run this time around.         

Poet’s Place has been handed a 10lbs penalty for his easy success at Haydock last time out (from Harry Patch), but considering the manner of that victory I think he has got off leniently. This big Trojan of a horse has only visited the racetrack six times and on every occasion he has encountered give in the ground he has looked a machine.

I think we have a Group Three horse at worse on our hands and a mark of 96 will not stop him if there is some juice in the Ayr turf come Saturday September 18th.

On that Haydock form, Valery Borzov could also run well as he has an 8lbs pull for a near five length beating.

Again the key to this horse is the ground. When he can dominate his field with dig he is a particularly different animal. And although York suits his style better than Ayr he is now 9lbs lower than his last win just over a year ago – where you’ve guessed it he had soft ground at his disposal.

Johnny Mudball, Courageous and last year’s sixth Tombi are among a whole host of horses also worth a second glance.

The last named down from a mark of 103 last year to 94 this year and ran a race full of promise on Sunday behind Hitchens at York; he looks a possible big player again with the draw proviso at around the 33/1 marker.        

Advice: 0.5 pt e/w Redford 16/1, 1pt e/w Valery Borzov 40/1 and 1.5 pts e/w Tombi 33/1.

Paul Jacobs

• All prices correct at time of writing. 

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